Market Size for E-commerce business in 2026 [Example]

The total available market (TAM) for e-commerce encompasses all online shoppers globally. According to data from Statista, the number of digital buyers worldwide is projected to reach approximately 2.14 billion in 2021. Considering that many people shop online more than once a year, let's assume that an average online shopper spends about $250 annually on e-commerce, which leads to a TAM of approximately $5 billion when we consider that number of active shoppers.

To determine the serviceable addressable market (SAM), we need to focus on specific niches within the e-commerce landscape. For example, if you are specializing in sustainable products, we can conservatively estimate that around 10% of online shoppers are interested in sustainable options. If we apply this percentage to our previous TAM calculations, we end up with 100 million potential customers, translating into an estimated SAM of $500 million, assuming an average spend of $500 per year per customer in this niche.

For the serviceable obtainable market (SOM), we need to further refine our expectations. Realistically, as a new solopreneur entering the market, capturing 1% of the SAM in the first year is a conservative target. This means targeting about 1,000 customers from the 100 million, leading to an estimated revenue of around $5 million if each of these customers spends an average of $500 annually. Given the competitive nature of e-commerce, setting a target of $5 million is both realistic and measurable.